巨大的能源博弈

The Great Big Power Play

Take yourself back to 2017. Get Out and The Shape of Water were playing in theaters, Zohran Mamdani was still known as rapper Young Cardamom, and the Trump administration, freshly in power, was eager to prop up its favored energy sources.

That year, the administration introduced a series of subsidies for struggling coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants, which were facing increasing price pressures from gas and cheap renewables. The plan would have put taxpayers on the hook for billions of dollars. It didn’t work.

In subsequent years, the nuclear industry kept running into roadblocks. Three nuclear plants have shut down since 2020, while construction of two of the only four reactors started since 2000 was put on hold after a decade and billions of dollars following a political scandal. Coal, meanwhile, continued its long decline: It comprises just 17 percent of the US power mix, down from a high of 45 percent in 2010.

Now, both of these energy sources are getting second chances. The difference this time is the buzz around AI, but it isn’t clear that the outcome will be much different.

Read more Expired/Tired/WIRED 2025 stories here.

Throughout 2025, the Trump administration has not just gone all in on promoting nuclear, but positioned it specifically as a solution to AI’s energy needs. In May, the president signed a series of executive orders intended to boost nuclear energy in the US, including ordering 10 new large reactors to be constructed by 2030. A pilot program at the Department of Energy created as a result of May’s executive orders—coupled with a serious reshuffling of the country’s nuclear regulator—has already led to breakthroughs from smaller startups. Energy secretary Chris Wright said in September that AI’s progress “will be accelerated by rapidly unlocking and deploying commercial nuclear power.”

The administration’s push is mirrored by investments from tech companies. Giants like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have inked numerous deals in recent years with nuclear companies to power data centers; Microsoft even joined the World Nuclear Association. Multiple retired reactors in the US are being considered for restarts—including two of the three that have closed in the past five years—with the tech industry supporting some of these arrangements. (This includes Microsoft’s high-profile restart of the infamous Three Mile Island, which is also being backed by a $1 billion loan from the federal government.) It’s a good time for both the private and public sectors to push nuclear: public support for nuclear power is the highest it’s been since 2010.

Despite all of this, the practicalities of nuclear energy leave its future in doubt. Most of nuclear’s costs come not from onerous regulations but from construction. Critics are wary of juiced-up valuations for small modular reactor companies, especially those with deep connections to the Trump administration. An $80 billion deal the government struck with reactor giant Westinghouse in October is light on details, leaving more questions than answers for the industry. And despite high-profile tech deals that promise to get reactors up and running in a few years, the timelines remain tricky.

Still, insiders say that this year marked a turning point.

“Nuclear technology has been seen by proponents as the neglected and unjustly villainized hero of the energy world,” says Brett Rampal, a nuclear power expert who advises investors. “Now, full-throated support from the president, Congress, tech companies, and the common person feels like generational restitution and a return to meritocracy.”

Nuclear isn’t the only form of energy that seems to be getting a second start thanks to AI. In April, President Trump signed a series of executive orders to boost US coal to power AI; Wright has since ordered two plants that were slated to be retired to stay online via emergency order. The administration has also scrambled to make it easier to run coal plants, in particular focusing on doing away with pollution regulation. These efforts—and the endless demand for energy from AI—may have extended a lifeline to coal: More than two dozen generating units that were scheduled to retire across the country are now staying online, separate from Wright’s order, with some getting yearslong reprieves.

A complete recovery for the industry, however, is still an open question. A recent analysis of the US power sector finds that almost all of the 10 largest utilities in the US are significantly slashing their reliance on coal. (Many of these utilities, the analysis shows, have been looking to replace coal-fired power with more nuclear.) Part of what may keep coal on its downward track in the US—albeit with an extended lifeline—is simply its bad PR. The tech of the future, after all, isn’t supposed to pollute the air and drive temperatures up; while AI has significantly set Big Tech back from its climate-change goals, these companies are theoretically still committed to not frying the planet.

And while tech giants are scrambling to align themselves with nuclear, which does not produce direct carbon emissions, no big companies have openly partnered with a struggling coal plant or splashed out a press release about how they’re seeking to produce more energy from coal. (Some retired coal plants are being proposed as sites for data centers, powered by natural gas.) Some companies are trying to develop technologies that would capture carbon emissions from coal plants, but outlook for those technologies is bearish following some high-profile failures.

“Emissions [are] always going to factor into the discussion” for investors, says Rampal.

The Oval Office playing favorites with energy sources doesn’t mean that it can defeat the market. Utility-scale solar and onshore wind remain some of the cheapest forms of energy around, even without government subsidies. And while Washington looks backward, other countries are continuing massive buildouts of renewable energy. China’s emissions have taken a nosedive over the past 18 months, thanks in large part to a huge expansion of renewable energy. Coal’s use in the power sector is declining due to competition from renewables, while nuclear made up only a small slice of total power use. If the administration’s goal is to defeat China on AI, it might want to start by taking a look at its energy playbook.

Expired/Tired/WIRED 2025

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